Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x192d…dac7 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+2%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$59
other 18% −$12
world 2% −$43
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 46% -13.5%
≤30d 50 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 46% -13.5%
≤90d 50 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 46% -13.5%
all 50 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 46% -13.5%
10% -27.8% 38% -21.8%
15% -34.7% 32% -29.4%
20% -41.1% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$31 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage7d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $108 +$36 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $192 −$95 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$28 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $204 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $201 +$96 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$101 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$10 +66%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 −$20 -57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 −$8 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 +$2 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$6 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$66 -60%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $80 +$35 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 +$26 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$23 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$13 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$13 +78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $144 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $97 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $155 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $95 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $99 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $227 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records