Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1927…63ed crypto 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-2%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%106W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$27
14 days−$77
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$178
other 15% −$23
sports 9% +$62
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 42% -14.4%
≤30d 183 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 49% -12.6%
≤90d 183 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 49% -12.6%
all 183 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 49% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 38% -21.0%
15% -31.0% 31% -28.6%
20% -37.8% 23% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses106 / 77
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 187
History coverage16d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19 +$10 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13 +$6 +44%
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -12%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $66 −$66 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $56 +$15 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$14 +50%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 22 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$4 -59%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Second half draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$13 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$10 +52%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 +$6 +118%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Austria to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +32%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$25 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $29 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 10h
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 10h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $66 29h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 29h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 78¢ $56 33h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Egypt to win the second half? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Egypt to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Second half draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 4d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.80 · official $28.80 (match) · 458 history records