Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1926…9a82
sports · 41 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$33 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage53d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 7 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$22
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +291%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +81%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +307%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $13 +$15 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$47
other 31% −$6
crypto 12% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $1 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 1¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 26¢ $1 3d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Spurs 94¢ $18 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 4d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) SELL Spurs 48¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 36% +14.2%
≤30d 34 -13.5% -21.8% 41% 38% +25.6%
≤90d 34 -13.5% -21.8% 41% 38% +25.6%
all 34 -13.5% -21.8% 41% 38% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 38% +25.6%
10% -29.2% 38% +13.6%
15% -36.1% 35% +2.6%
20% -42.3% 24% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.60 · official $28.60 (match) · 120 history records