Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:00:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1925…4654
sports · 29 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$1,097,694 +66%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,095,148 · open −$30,945
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$124,400
Realized+$1,095,148
Unrealized−$30,945
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$20,123
Open positions11
Markets (closed)19 / 29
History coverage25d
Avg bet$57,733
Trades / day135.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 11 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75,777
7 days−$457,803
14 days+$553,687
30 days+$1,095,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $108,030 $107,965 −$65 (-0%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $2,005 $4,385 +$2,380 (+119%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $8,927 $2,782 −$6,145 (-69%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $14,548 $2,638 −$11,910 (-82%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 36¢ 80¢ $917 $2,038 +$1,121 (+122%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $6,589 $1,109 −$5,480 (-83%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $2,121 $1,008 −$1,112 (-52%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 32¢ 9¢ $3,266 $917 −$2,349 (-72%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $4,796 $754 −$4,041 (-84%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $3,038 $424 −$2,614 (-86%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 21¢ 7¢ $1,110 $381 −$729 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $95,301 +$75,777 +80%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5) Jun 06 $1,377 −$1,376 -100%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 06 $2,953 −$2,953 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 06 $83,222 −$82,038 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 06 $95,930 −$95,930 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 06 $201,840 −$201,840 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana Jun 06 $149,443 −$149,443 -100%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $908 +$984 +108%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) Jun 01 $29,149 +$23,720 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $158,395 +$13,766 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $247,996 +$151,997 +61%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $49,696 +$531,509 +1070%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $7,102 −$7,088 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $168,185 +$296,602 +176%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $18 +$7 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $62,108 +$91,446 +147%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $100,149 +$103,518 +103%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $32,844 +$45,356 +138%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $52,916 +$301,133 +569%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% +$946,643
other 21% +$149,325
finance 1% −$31,766
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $108,578 4h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $611 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3,612 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $9 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $191 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $195 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $90,675 21h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $52 23h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $4,351 23h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,740 23h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 23h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 23h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 24h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 27h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 28h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 29h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $23,904 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $110 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $611 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $136 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+80.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -74.1% -76.6% 14% 14% -75.3%
≤30d 19 +99.2% +80.2% 63% 58% +54.8%
≤90d 19 +99.2% +80.2% 63% 58% +54.8%
all 19 +99.2% +80.2% 63% 58% +54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover135.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.2% 58% +54.8%
10% +63.0% 58% +40.0%
15% ← realistic here +47.2% 58% +26.5%
20% +32.8% 53% +14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124,400.43 · official $124,352.94 (match) · 3500 history records