Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1923…ef8e crypto 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$207 (-1%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%505W / 63L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day84.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$259
14 days−$271
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$38
weather 29% +$25
world 6% −$185
other 1% +$2
tech 0% +$40
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 446 -6.0% -14.9% 90% 1% -10.4%
≤30d 568 -5.1% -14.2% 89% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 568 -5.1% -14.2% 89% 6% -10.3%
all 568 -5.1% -14.2% 89% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 6% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 2% -18.9%
15% -29.9% 1% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses505 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)568 / 541
History coverage23d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day84.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 568 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 5? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 18? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 5? Jun 25 $0 −$1 -511%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 5? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2491 history records