Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
19 0x191f…f09e sports 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,789 (-4%) realized −$1,789 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%127W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$640est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days−$102
14 days−$453
30 days−$2,894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,958
other 6% +$316
world 1% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.2% +2.5% 54% 54% -15.7%
≤30d 192 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 44% -16.9%
≤90d 265 -10.4% -18.9% 48% 47% -13.2%
all 265 -10.4% -18.9% 48% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 47% -13.2%
10% -26.7% 44% -21.5%
15% -33.8% 42% -29.1%
20% -40.3% 34% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$132 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,789
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses127 / 138
Est. fees paid−$640
Open positions0
Markets (closed)265 / 267
History coverage38d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 265 Trades
no open positions (132 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $61 +$52 +86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $167 +$130 +78%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $367 +$198 +54%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $36 +$34 +97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $69 +$39 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov Jun 24 $167 −$164 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $173 −$169 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $365 −$163 -45%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $137 −$135 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $9 +$17 +188%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $67 +$143 +212%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $129 −$127 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$72 +128%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $279 −$274 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$299 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $198 −$196 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $58 +$49 +84%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $202 +$85 +42%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$205 +203%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $99 −$97 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $48 −$47 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $257 +$541 +210%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $134 +$123 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $194 +$39 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $199 −$6 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $178 −$175 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $247 +$131 +53%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$11 +17%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $50 +$32 +64%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $149 +$167 +112%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $105 −$104 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $166 +$88 +53%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $266 +$121 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $139 +$38 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $167 +$61 +37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $194 −$191 -99%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $199 −$197 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $64 −$63 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $52 −$51 -97%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $119 +$135 +113%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $55 +$162 +294%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $113 6m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 15m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $298 34m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $167 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera SELL Marina Bassols Ribera 100¢ $564 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 76¢ $198 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 54¢ $168 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Rebecca Sramkova 59¢ $35 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea SELL Soon-Woo Kwon 100¢ $70 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter SELL Aliaksandra Sasnovich 100¢ $108 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 50¢ $36 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 63¢ $69 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov BUY Elias Ymer 40¢ $167 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 29¢ $173 6d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $51 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $3 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 31¢ $166 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $167 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 85¢ $199 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $137 6d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 48¢ $26 6d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner SELL Division One 100¢ $211 6d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Division One 31¢ $67 6d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 16¢ $9 6d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $102 7d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $56 7d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $129 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $129 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $56 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $279 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 522 history records