Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x191f…052a other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$55
politics 29% −$17
sports 18% −$12
crypto 7% −$13
world 4% −$6
finance 4% −$1
culture 4% −$4
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 70 -1.0% -10.4% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 120 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 142 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage106d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 93¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $57 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 −$4 -7%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $251 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $65 $0 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $470 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $64 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $52 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $41 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 05 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $37 −$2 -5%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 02 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $457 −$2 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $298 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $48 59m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $64 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $64 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 14h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 14h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $54 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 27h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $59 27h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 34h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 34h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $46 35h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $46 41h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $55 41h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $59 45h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 46h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $64 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $65 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $35 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.87 · official $47.87 (match) · 545 history records