Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x191e…dd9e sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,908 (-26%) realized −$3,392 · open +$484
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,322
7 days−$1,793
14 days−$1,793
30 days−$1,793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$780
crypto 16% −$890
other 8% −$429
world 4% −$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.8% -15.7% 30% 30% -45.3%
≤30d 27 -6.8% -15.7% 30% 30% -45.3%
≤90d 64 -12.7% -21.0% 33% 33% -35.6%
all 64 -12.7% -21.0% 33% 33% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 33% -35.6%
10% -28.6% 31% -41.7%
15% -35.5% 31% -47.4%
20% -41.8% 27% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$131 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,148
Realized−$3,392
Unrealized+$484
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage79d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 18¢ 100¢ $100 $565 +$465 (+465%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 65¢ $283 $383 +$100 (+35%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 57¢ 40¢ $281 $200 −$81 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$97 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $277 +$111 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $452 −$452 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $457 −$457 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $363 +$212 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $264 +$46 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $68 +$86 +126%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $195 +$99 +51%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $52 −$48 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$291 +970%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $106 +$341 +320%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $64 −$34 -53%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $344 −$344 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $213 −$213 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $118 +$95 +81%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Blues vs. Avalanche Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 Jun 13 $211 −$211 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $450 −$348 -77%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Apr 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $748 −$628 -84%
Devils vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Apr 05 $79 −$31 -39%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 05 $569 −$566 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5 Apr 05 $65 −$13 -20%
Devils vs. Canadiens Apr 05 $476 −$8 -2%
Bruins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Apr 05 $196 −$116 -59%
Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Apr 05 $88 −$88 -100%
Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pl Apr 02 $299 +$217 +72%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Apr 02 $129 +$73 +57%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Apr 02 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $91 +$59 +64%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $229 +$141 +62%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $98 −$5 -5%
Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 Apr 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Apr 02 $60 +$39 +65%
Spurs vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline Apr 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Apr 02 $125 −$125 -100%
Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $187 −$159 -85%
Canucks vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 Apr 02 $39 +$82 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $286 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $101 22m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $388 23m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $277 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $288 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $112 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $151 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $151 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $363 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $132 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $310 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $34 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $230 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $155 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $294 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $151 20h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) SELL New Zealand 0¢ $3 20h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 1¢ $52 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $68 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $306 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $195 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $321 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $447 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $307 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $106 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 9¢ $30 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,147.62 · official $1,183.02 · 163 history records