Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x191d…030e crypto 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$152 (-1%) realized −$152 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate61%107W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$8
other 18% −$109
politics 15% −$2
sports 6% −$35
world 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 94% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 101 -10.3% -18.9% 70% 4% -9.7%
all 174 -10.1% -18.7% 61% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 6% -10.4%
10% -26.5% 5% -19.0%
15% -33.6% 3% -26.8%
20% -40.1% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses107 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage152d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 19 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $107 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $117 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $117 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch May 25 $4 +$3 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $113 $0 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 20 $118 $0 +0%
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami May 19 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17? May 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 15 $97 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of t May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 5? May 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 2? May 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Apr 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $229 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 24? Apr 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $94 19d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $107 20d
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 100¢ $117 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 22d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 23d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 23d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 23d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 56¢ $4 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 26d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $113 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 67¢ $5 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 31d
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Moise Kouame 49¢ $4 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $98 33d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 34d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 36d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 52¢ $4 36d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $96 36d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $96 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.81 · official $96.81 (match) · 338 history records