Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1919…0ca9 crypto 524 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$34 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%220W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$19
14 days−$67
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$73
other 3% +$18
world 3% +$32
sports 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -20.8% -28.4% 42% 42% -25.0%
≤30d 514 -8.9% -17.6% 42% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 517 -8.9% -17.6% 43% 42% -12.7%
all 517 -8.9% -17.6% 43% 42% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 42% -12.7%
10% -25.5% 42% -21.0%
15% -32.7% 42% -28.7%
20% -39.3% 40% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses220 / 297
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)517 / 524
History coverage63d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 37¢ 81¢ $15 $34 +$18 (+122%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 50¢ 70¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 56¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? Yes 33¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.27 · official $40.12 · 847 history records