Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x1919…5cf4 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.4% -27.1% 40% 20% -11.8%
≤30d 5 -19.4% -27.1% 40% 20% -11.8%
≤90d 5 -19.4% -27.1% 40% 20% -11.8%
all 5 -19.4% -27.1% 40% 20% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 20% -11.8%
10% -34.1% 20% -20.2%
15% -40.4% 20% -27.9%
20% -46.3% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$35 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $146 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $87 +$90 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $95 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records