Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1917…138b
crypto · 1263 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$483 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$465 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$465
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses795 / 498
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1293 / 1263
History coverage24d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day145.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1293 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$181
14 days−$348
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$2 -163%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$3 -230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$2 -444%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$2 -186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$3 -187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$5 -186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$5 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$9 -160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$6 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$4 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$3 -518%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -82%
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Florian Wirtz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $21 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $134 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$327
other 2% −$9
world 1% −$3
finance 0% −$15
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $11 39m
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $11 39m
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 39m
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 42m
Will Florian Wirtz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 1h
Will Florian Wirtz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World SELL No 21¢ $3 3h
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 53¢ $10 3h
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 3h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World SELL No 21¢ $0 3h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World SELL Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 82¢ $16 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 12% -15.1%
≤30d 1293 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 14% -13.2%
≤90d 1293 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 14% -13.2%
all 1293 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 14% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover145.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 14% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 1% -21.5%
15% -29.1% 0% -29.1%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.51 · official $22.51 (match) · 3500 history records