Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x1916…d88f other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$19
politics 22% −$9
world 6% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
sports 2% +$14
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +8.2% -2.1% 17% 17% -8.1%
≤30d 17 +2.9% -6.9% 18% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 110 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 110 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 9% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 9% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage91d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $204 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $11 +$6 +50%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $349 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $337 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $421 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $160 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 31 $63 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $721 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $313 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $329 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $313 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $299 $0 +0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $324 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $314 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $323 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $311 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $326 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $303 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $857 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $309 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $309 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $325 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $315 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $886 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $8 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 3h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $71 24h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $71 26h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 45h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 47h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $204 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $11 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $57 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $57 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $63 17d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $63 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $46 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $73 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.57 · official $211.57 (match) · 332 history records