Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1914…411b other 12 markets active 4h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-24%) realized −$31 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% $0
world 22% +$3
sports 13% −$20
culture 11% +$5
politics 11% $0
crypto 11% −$20
finance 8% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.5% -20.0% 50% 50% -32.3%
≤30d 8 -11.5% -20.0% 50% 50% -32.3%
≤90d 8 -11.5% -20.0% 50% 50% -32.3%
all 8 -11.5% -20.0% 50% 50% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 50% -32.3%
10% -27.6% 38% -38.8%
15% -34.6% 25% -44.7%
20% -41.0% 12% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 46¢ 45¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 30¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +13%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.73 · official $45.73 (match) · 20 history records