Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x1914…143d other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$40
politics 24% −$8
sports 3% −$33
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.8% +5.6% 33% 17% -8.7%
≤30d 19 +5.2% -4.8% 16% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 104 -6.4% -15.3% 11% 6% -9.7%
all 107 -7.2% -16.0% 11% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 6% -9.8%
10% -24.0% 6% -18.4%
15% -31.4% 5% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage96d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $792 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $13 +$14 +101%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $155 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $374 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $296 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $109 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $273 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $617 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $529 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $263 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $271 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $525 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $16 22h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $159 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $13 4d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $155 6d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $55 6d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $55 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 16d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.08 · official $211.08 (match) · 326 history records