Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
19 0x1911…a903 crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%84W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
other 0% −$7
world 0% −$1
tech 0% +$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.6% 50% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 7 +6.7% -3.5% 86% 14% -9.8%
≤90d 28 +2.1% -7.6% 96% 4% -9.5%
all 88 -2.6% -11.9% 95% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 1% -9.5%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses84 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage238d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 81¢ 60¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? Jun 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +138%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 06 $111 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +5%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 25? Apr 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 20? Apr 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? Apr 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? Apr 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 05 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? Apr 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 12? Mar 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 3? Feb 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $109 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $111 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $114 19d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? BUY No 41¢ $2 36d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $4 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 47d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 59d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $3 60d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $103 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $97 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $103 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $99 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $101 75d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 95¢ $3 76d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 97¢ $5 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $105 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $106 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $109 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $110 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $104 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $103 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.50 · official $114.50 (match) · 184 history records