Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x190e…b11a crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,962 (+3%) realized +$5,302 · open −$340
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$5,262per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$51,329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 143d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$3,698
sports 18% +$8,066
world 1% −$2,662
tech 1% +$3,887
crypto 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.9% +3.0% 74% 53% -0.3%
≤30d 19 +13.9% +3.0% 74% 53% -0.3%
≤90d 22 +8.7% -1.6% 73% 50% -0.4%
all 33 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 36% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 36% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 27% -9.9%
15% -26.8% 15% -18.6%
20% -34.0% 12% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$611) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,053 vs −$1,340 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$51,329
Realized+$5,302
Unrealized−$340
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage143d
Avg bet$5,262
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 76¢ 76¢ $51,669 $51,329 −$340 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: South Africa (-1.5) AND Spread: Uzb Jun 20 $657 +$813 +124%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45,157 +$5,414 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37,653 +$7,482 +20%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) AND Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $5,991 +$458 +8%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $24,500 +$6,704 +27%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $2,322 +$3,673 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $559 +$190 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $450 +$109 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $305 +$145 +48%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $103 +$203 +198%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $611 +$55 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,700 −$2,662 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9,011 −$8,979 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $158 −$106 -67%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 −$43 -86%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $152 −$151 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 08 $4 +$1 +21%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $137 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 28 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 28 $106 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 28 $104 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 28 $7 −$4 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 28 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 28 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $59 0m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $51,982 1m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $14 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $14 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45,129 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $26 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $2,420 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $35,208 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $25 26h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $24,475 26h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) AND Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY 93¢ $5,991 29h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5,991 29h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Uzb BUY 44¢ $750 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $559 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $450 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $450 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $305 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $305 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: South Africa (-1.5) AND Spread: Uzb BUY 44¢ $657 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,693 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $502 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $4,997 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $108 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,013 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,329.30 · official $51,329.30 (match) · 96 history records