Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x190e…1bc4 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+8%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$24
sports 21% −$2
crypto 6% +$2
tech 5% +$1
economics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 83% 33% +0.6%
≤30d 7 +11.7% +1.1% 86% 29% +0.6%
≤90d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 78% 22% -1.3%
all 13 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 23% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 23% -1.4%
10% -17.0% 15% -10.8%
15% -25.0% 15% -19.4%
20% -32.4% 0% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.0 per $1 lost it wins $5.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage227d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$12 +37%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $15 +$2 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 20 $18 +$1 +6%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 07 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $4 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $56 32m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $55 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 93¢ $55 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 86¢ $55 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $55 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $56 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $46 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $15 34d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 89d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 95d
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan BUY Japan 89¢ $13 104d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 138d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 95¢ $1 175d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 30¢ $4 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.12 · official $55.12 (match) · 49 history records