Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x190d…7516 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,139 (-1%) realized −$1,138 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$715per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$995
politics 41% −$38
sports 14% −$105
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$12
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 86 -11.6% -20.0% 8% 5% -11.4%
all 124 -3.7% -12.9% 15% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 11% -10.7%
10% -21.2% 11% -19.3%
15% -28.8% 9% -27.1%
20% -35.8% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$881) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$16 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,032
Realized−$1,138
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage123d
Avg bet$715
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $546 $546 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $486 $486 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,227 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,927 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $682 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $950 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 21 $886 −$886 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,316 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,291 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,401 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $724 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,451 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $701 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $491 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $483 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $495 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $468 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $2,354 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $546 27h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $634 4d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $635 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $864 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $865 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $851 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $853 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $822 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $823 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $868 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $847 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $818 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $819 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $678 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $679 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $800 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $801 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $725 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $726 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $763 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $764 14d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $770 18d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $771 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $88 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $88 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.85 · official $1,031.85 (match) · 414 history records