Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1907…ac1a weather 1013 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$572 (-9%) realized −$572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%417W / 589L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$54
14 days−$93
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$555
other 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +4.8% -5.2% 58% 22% -7.1%
≤30d 292 +5.8% -4.2% 39% 24% -12.1%
≤90d 1006 -11.4% -19.8% 41% 32% -17.9%
all 1006 -11.4% -19.8% 41% 32% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 32% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 25% -25.8%
15% -34.5% 19% -32.9%
20% -40.9% 16% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses417 / 589
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1006 / 1013
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1006 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 28 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? Jun 28 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27? Jun 28 $123 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 27? Jun 28 $120 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? Jun 28 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? Jun 28 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $122 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 28 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 28 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 27 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 26 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Jun 26 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 25? Jun 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? Jun 26 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24? Jun 24 $20 −$10 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 +$15 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 24 $2 +$4 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $125 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $125 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $125 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $125 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $125 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $112 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $125 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $123 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $125 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $125 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $120 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $125 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $122 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $125 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $125 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $125 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $95 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $125 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $125 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $8 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.18 · official $5.18 (match) · 3500 history records