Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1901…7b79 crypto 1326 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$954 (-14%) realized −$954 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%641W / 683L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day232.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$391
14 days−$257
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$243
other 3% −$11
sports 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (232 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1240 -12.4% -20.8% 45% 38% -15.2%
≤30d 1324 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 41% -13.0%
≤90d 1324 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 41% -13.0%
all 1324 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 41% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 41% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 33% -21.3%
15% -31.8% 26% -28.9%
20% -38.4% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$954
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses641 / 683
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1324 / 1326
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day232.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 59¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 338 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$15 +561%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$12 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.79 · official $6.98 (match) · 3500 history records