Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1900…c118 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$17 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$4
other 24% −$2
politics 18% −$3
crypto 17% +$1
sports 15% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 0% -7.7%
all 24 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 12% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 12% -6.8%
10% -18.6% 8% -15.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -23.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage476d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $48 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $28 +$2 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $5 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $8 $0 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $25 $0 +0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14? Mar 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $18 +$4 +22%
Kent State vs. Western Michigan Mar 06 $13 +$5 +35%
UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ilhan Omar applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $18 −$5 -27%
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco Mar 04 $14 +$4 +25%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $48 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $3 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $16 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 24d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 362d
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? BUY No 98¢ $2 380d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $1 416d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $2 430d
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 446d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $7 447d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $16 447d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $23 450d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $0 450d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $1 450d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY Yes $0 450d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.59 · official $41.75 (match) · 62 history records