trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 74¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $34 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 11 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 09 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Aug 15 | $54 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 13 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15? | Aug 11 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Aug 10 | $59 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? | Aug 10 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? | Aug 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 09 | $9 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 08 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? | Aug 08 | $65 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? | Aug 07 | $70 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Aug 07 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 07 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | Aug 07 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? | Aug 06 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 06 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Aug 06 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? | Aug 05 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 12% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 11% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 11% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 28 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 32% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 0% | -33.2% |