Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18fe…af43 other 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,730 (-21%) realized −$2,849 · open +$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%84W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days−$45
14 days−$190
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$997
sports 42% −$1,501
crypto 3% −$21
world 1% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.8% -6.1% 62% 62% -11.0%
≤30d 42 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 60% -15.5%
≤90d 45 +0.5% -9.0% 60% 60% -15.7%
all 148 -8.1% -16.8% 57% 51% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 51% -29.3%
10% -24.8% 42% -36.1%
15% -32.0% 30% -42.3%
20% -38.7% 24% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$78 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$2,849
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses84 / 64
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)148 / 152
History coverage213d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 100¢ $120 $200 +$80 (+67%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $156 $200 +$44 (+28%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 26¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-30%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $227 +$73 +32%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $14 +$6 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $310 +$90 +29%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots Jun 22 $70 −$70 -99%
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Jun 22 $56 +$44 +79%
Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots Jun 21 $11 +$9 +79%
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots Jun 21 $12 +$8 +73%
Federico Viñas: 3+ shots Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $9 −$2 -21%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$25 +97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $28 +$22 +76%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $363 −$357 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$18 +54%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots Jun 20 $45 +$20 +45%
Alexander Isak: 2+ shots Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Arda Güler: 3+ shots Jun 20 $15 +$10 +70%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ shots Jun 20 $397 +$103 +26%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots Jun 20 $8 +$2 +18%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $17 +$13 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $238 −$237 -99%
Raphinha: 2+ shots Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$54 +54%
Pavel Šulc: 2+ shots Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Lyle Foster: 1+ shots Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $83 +$117 +140%
Declan Rice: 1+ shots Jun 18 $8 +$4 +45%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$5 +22%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots Jun 17 $11 +$6 +52%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +71%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $158 −$156 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $299 +$50 +17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 +$87 +44%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 17 $6 +$2 +32%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-28? Mar 20 $10 +$4 +33%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $6 +$4 +63%
Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5) Feb 26 $1 +$6 +426%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $366 −$340 -93%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Feb 26 $502 −$502 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 49m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $156 50m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $121 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $19 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 70¢ $14 21h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $17 24h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $4 25h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $227 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $310 25h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $49 25h
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $7 44h
Federico Viñas: 3+ shots BUY Yes 64¢ $16 44h
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $11 44h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $13 44h
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $56 44h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals SELL Yes 24¢ $7 46h
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $12 47h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $9 47h
Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $11 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $163 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $28 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $81 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $119 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $25 2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $21 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots BUY Yes 69¢ $8 3d
Alexander Isak: 2+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.11 · official $415.11 (match) · 466 history records