Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18fd…b263 crypto 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (157 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-9%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%103W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day157.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (157 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 66% -16.4%
≤30d 153 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 66% -16.4%
≤90d 153 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 66% -16.4%
all 153 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 66% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 66% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 35% -24.4%
15% -32.5% 12% -31.7%
20% -39.1% 7% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses103 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day157.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 65¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.33 · official $1.14 (match) · 329 history records