Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18fd…53ef crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$37 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%37W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$23
14 days−$40
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$22
sports 33% +$66
other 22% −$57
politics 8% +$27
weather 2% −$26
finance 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% -30.1%
≤30d 19 -14.7% -22.8% 58% 53% -7.6%
≤90d 34 -49.9% -54.6% 32% 29% -37.9%
all 67 -10.5% -19.1% 55% 52% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 52% -11.3%
10% -26.8% 45% -19.8%
15% -33.9% 30% -27.6%
20% -40.4% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses37 / 30
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage214d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 +$15 +60%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $25 +$12 +48%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $25 +$13 +52%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$7 +27%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $25 +$7 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $25 +$10 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $25 +$6 +26%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $25 +$15 +60%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $25 +$9 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $152 −$6 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 27? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 18 $101 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Mar 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? Mar 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 19 $108 −$17 -16%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $77 +$26 +33%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $25 +$18 +72%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5 Mar 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Mar 15 $25 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 11 $25 +$13 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 11 $25 −$18 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 11 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 11 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 11 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$52 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$97 +388%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 57¢ $25 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 25h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 71¢ $25 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $25 6d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian SELL Jaqueline Cristian 99¢ $32 8d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 77¢ $25 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 78¢ $25 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 65¢ $25 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $25 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 69¢ $25 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $25 9d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 72¢ $25 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 62¢ $25 12d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 12d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $34 14d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $25 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $146 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 27? SELL No 75¢ $12 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 27? BUY No 73¢ $11 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 27? BUY No 69¢ $0 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26? BUY Yes $1 21d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 21d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL Yes 99¢ $154 29d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 45d
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 75¢ $77 91d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 93d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $30 93d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 84¢ $25 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.75 · official $29.75 (match) · 136 history records