Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
18 0x18fc…b534 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+2%) realized −$40 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$32
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$156
crypto 31% +$223
other 15% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -9.5% -18.1% 54% 54% -5.8%
≤30d 77 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 55% -10.4%
≤90d 77 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 55% -10.4%
all 77 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 55% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 55% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 47% -19.0%
15% -30.3% 36% -26.8%
20% -37.2% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 35
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions14
Markets (closed)77 / 93
History coverage13d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 63¢ 88¢ $231 $323 +$92 (+40%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 98¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+26%)
Spread: England (-2.5) Ghana 62¢ 90¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 94¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 78¢ 81¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 20¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $48 −$35 -73%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $88 +$41 +47%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $40 +$6 +16%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -52%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $22 +$8 +34%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 +$10 +24%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $48 +$18 +37%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $12 +$8 +64%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $6 +$26 +454%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$10 +26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $25 +$6 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $60 +$11 +18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $53 +$29 +54%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $12 +$7 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$19 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $19 −$12 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 +$3 +53%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $43 −$42 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$11 -74%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 18 $264 +$115 +44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$13 +25%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 −$56 -81%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$12 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 +$8 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 62¢ $15 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $15 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $129 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $47 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $7 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 25¢ $13 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.87 · official $514.88 (match) · 321 history records