Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18f6…9483
crypto · 436 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$115 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$115 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses197 / 238
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)435 / 436
History coverage45d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 435 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +91%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 26 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 21 $3 +$18 +569%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $3 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$108
other 0% −$6
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.6% -24.6% 52% 52% -17.3%
≤30d 58 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 38% -38.2%
≤90d 435 -8.1% -16.9% 45% 43% -15.5%
all 435 -8.1% -16.9% 45% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 43% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 40% -23.6%
15% -32.1% 34% -31.0%
20% -38.7% 27% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.19 · official $2.19 (match) · 1188 history records