Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18f6…0650 sports 365 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,367 (-7%) realized −$1,304 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%149W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$232
14 days−$332
30 days−$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$11
crypto 32% −$1,021
other 13% −$786
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.0% -40.3% 38% 25% -51.3%
≤30d 36 -27.3% -34.2% 42% 39% -39.4%
≤90d 364 -11.3% -19.7% 41% 40% -17.1%
all 364 -11.3% -19.7% 41% 40% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 40% -17.1%
10% -27.4% 40% -25.0%
15% -34.4% 39% -32.3%
20% -40.8% 36% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$47 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$1,304
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses149 / 215
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)364 / 365
History coverage74d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 22¢ $128 $66 −$63 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $176 −$175 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$55 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $122 −$39 -32%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $55 −$55 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? May 27 $27 +$28 +105%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $20 +$7 +34%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $117 −$115 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? May 24 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $101 +$60 +60%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 23 $51 +$48 +94%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $30 +$17 +55%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $30 +$33 +109%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 21 $51 +$51 +101%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $51 +$29 +57%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $30 +$8 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 20 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $31 −$30 -96%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 20 $122 +$38 +31%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 20 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $31 −$23 -76%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5 May 19 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $30 +$30 +97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 19 $41 +$59 +146%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $10 −$8 -76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $41 −$26 -62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 19 $31 −$28 -91%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $41 +$68 +167%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 18 $81 +$73 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 18 $51 +$86 +169%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $12 −$11 -97%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $230 −$228 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $246 +$182 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $130 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $176 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $30 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $51 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 78¢ $53 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 73¢ $50 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $51 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 8¢ $10 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $51 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 58¢ $77 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $71 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 7d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 56¢ $55 21d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 48¢ $27 22d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 63¢ $56 25d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 35¢ $31 25d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 21¢ $31 25d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $20 25d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 50¢ $71 25d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY DN SOOPers 8¢ $10 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 62¢ $101 26d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 28¢ $20 26d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 63¢ $101 26d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 78¢ $30 26d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 64¢ $30 26d
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 51¢ $51 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 36¢ $20 28d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 33¢ $31 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.55 · official $65.55 (match) · 680 history records