Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
18 0x18f3…0c20 sports 703 markets active 3h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,909 (+1%) realized +$5,166 · open −$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%371W / 315L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$3,648est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$9,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,515
7 days−$4,010
14 days+$611
30 days−$17,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$15,630
other 8% −$14,469
world 0% +$1,025
crypto 0% +$473
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +2.7% -7.1% 53% 53% -13.2%
≤30d 555 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 50% -14.7%
≤90d 594 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 52% -13.0%
all 686 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 53% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 53% -8.7%
10% -17.9% 49% -17.5%
15% -25.8% 44% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 36% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$374 vs −$431 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$9,380
Realized+$5,166
Unrealized−$257
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses371 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3,648
Open positions17
Markets (closed)686 / 703
History coverage131d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1,380 $1,350 −$30 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1,280 $1,250 −$30 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 59¢ 56¢ $1,180 $1,130 −$50 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $1,040 $1,050 +$10 (+1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 61¢ 64¢ $811 $844 +$33 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 37¢ 36¢ $740 $730 −$10 (-1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 87¢ 87¢ $435 $435 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs K27 68¢ 66¢ $340 $332 −$7 (-2%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 39¢ 40¢ $312 $324 +$12 (+4%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $284 $289 +$4 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs ex-RUBY 50¢ 48¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 45¢ 48¢ $270 $285 +$15 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A ENERGYULTRA 46¢ 46¢ $276 $279 +$3 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A roamsfiest 47¢ 44¢ $276 $262 −$15 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 42¢ 40¢ $252 $243 −$9 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 68¢ 40¢ $340 $200 −$140 (-41%)
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $120 $92 −$28 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 245 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,055 +$945 +90%
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Jun 20 $100 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $3,526 −$3,488 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $289 +$211 +73%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $323 +$177 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $617 +$383 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $334 +$266 +79%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $486 +$414 +85%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $375 +$125 +33%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $327 −$322 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $427 −$420 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $886 −$7 -1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $299 +$201 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $724 −$711 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $303 −$299 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $477 −$470 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $782 +$540 +69%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $219 −$215 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $895 +$305 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,095 +$905 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6,193 −$6,080 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $360 +$640 +178%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $390 +$610 +156%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,882 −$4,815 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $1,175 −$1,160 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $1,888 +$1,907 +101%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4,554 +$1,005 +22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $166 −$165 -99%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $515 −$450 -88%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 18 $408 −$408 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $425 −$425 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $270 −$259 -96%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,150 −$2,120 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $855 +$1,145 +134%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $924 +$254 +28%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $193 −$190 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $345 +$155 +45%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $827 +$673 +81%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $213 −$8 -4%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $400 +$83 +21%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $995 −$980 -98%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $258 +$341 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY roamsfiest 47¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY roamsfiest 47¢ $94 3h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY roamsfiest 47¢ $138 3h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 46¢ $67 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 68¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 50¢ $300 3h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 46¢ $69 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 68¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 68¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 68¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 68¢ $62 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 68¢ $76 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 68¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 68¢ $330 4h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 68¢ $143 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY TDK 45¢ $274 4h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 68¢ $14 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $256 4h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 46¢ $143 4h
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? SELL No 70¢ $99 18h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $356 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $3,170 26h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 51¢ $207 40h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 55¢ $279 40h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $327 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $617 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $427 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $879 42h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 42¢ $724 2d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 56¢ $119 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,379.76 · official $9,379.96 (match) · 2425 history records