Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18f2…9ff6 crypto 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-7%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate71%99W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$25
weather 12% +$1
other 4% $0
sports 4% +$1
politics 3% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.8% -6.1% 79% 74% -5.4%
≤30d 36 +4.0% -5.9% 78% 61% -8.6%
≤90d 140 -6.0% -14.9% 71% 49% -17.9%
all 140 -6.0% -14.9% 71% 49% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 49% -17.9%
10% -23.1% 21% -25.8%
15% -30.5% 9% -33.0%
20% -37.3% 4% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses99 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)140 / 150
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goranss Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 21? May 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 17? May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17? May 18 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 17? May 18 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? May 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song o May 16 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15? May 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? May 13 $1 $0 +12%
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2AM ET May 11 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 10 $1 $0 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 59m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 42¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal SELL Petr Brunclik 98¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goranss SELL Goransson/King 13¢ $0 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goranss BUY Goransson/King 77¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 75¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal BUY Petr Brunclik 73¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 62¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL No 98¢ $2 6h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 76¢ $1 8h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 81¢ $1 8h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $1 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 86¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.03 · official $11.03 (match) · 311 history records