Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18f0…c3ac crypto 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3363 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$512 (-5%) realized −$511 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%79W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3363.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$409
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3363 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -7.2% -16.1% 54% 40% -14.7%
≤30d 147 -7.2% -16.1% 54% 40% -14.7%
≤90d 147 -7.2% -16.1% 54% 40% -14.7%
all 147 -7.2% -16.1% 54% 40% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3363.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 40% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 29% -22.8%
15% -31.4% 14% -30.3%
20% -38.1% 5% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
24.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$29 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$511
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses79 / 68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 139
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3363.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $86 −$14 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $58 −$45 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $62 −$43 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $47 +$18 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $47 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $83 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $119 −$74 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $77 +$31 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $75 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $71 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $90 −$57 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $59 −$34 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $65 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $107 −$45 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $43 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $55 +$32 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $74 −$40 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $43 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$19 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $55 −$28 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$36 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $75 +$30 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.39 · official $5.40 (match) · 3500 history records