Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18f0…3101 other 81 markets active 7h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$9 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$10
politics 26% −$21
other 20% +$4
economics 12% −$7
sports 7% +$10
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -12.2%
≤30d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -12.2%
≤90d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -12.2%
all 16 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 25% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 25% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 25% -20.6%
15% -27.1% 19% -28.3%
20% -34.3% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions65
Markets (closed)16 / 81
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? No 83¢ 84¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $42 $36 −$5 (-13%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+16%)
Will Timothée Chalamet be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Philadelphia Eagles next? No 82¢ 91¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 25¢ 26¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $7 $9 +$3 (+42%)
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? No 81¢ 69¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 82¢ 91¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Derek Shelton win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? No 91¢ 90¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? No 91¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nick Kurtz win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? No 89¢ 85¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Seattle Seahawks next? No 91¢ 95¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? No 87¢ 78¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? No 83¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+139%)
Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -10%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 +$7 +119%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$9 +146%
Set 1 Winner: Timofeeva vs Zarazua Jun 15 $5 +$7 +124%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Valentova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $86 −$7 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $177 −$7 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Payton Tolle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Payton Tolle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $6 6h
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 41¢ $13 7h
Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 32h
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $6 2d
Set 1 Winner: Timofeeva vs Zarazua BUY Zarazua 44¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ $5 2d
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? BUY No 87¢ $7 2d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 46¢ $5 2d
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 43¢ $5 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY No 79¢ $2 2d
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Valentova BUY Valentova 42¢ $5 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $6 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 40¢ $6 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Travis Kelce retire before next season? BUY Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.58 · official $374.22 (match) · 171 history records