Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x18f0…c0f5 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$931 (+3%) realized +$888 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$854per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,856
7 days+$4,860
14 days+$4,860
30 days+$4,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$2,547
other 31% +$3,415
world 8% −$6
economics 2% +$6
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +56.8% +41.8% 100% 75% +39.4%
≤30d 4 +56.8% +41.8% 100% 75% +39.4%
≤90d 7 +34.3% +21.5% 86% 71% +35.5%
all 30 +9.7% -0.7% 73% 40% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 40% -6.4%
10% -10.2% 37% -15.4%
15% -18.9% 33% -23.6%
20% -26.9% 27% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,026) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$1,002 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$3,043
Realized+$888
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage749d
Avg bet$854
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 82¢ 84¢ $2,000 $2,037 +$37 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $4,940 +$1,773 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,046 +$3,077 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,051 +$288 +27%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $100 −$99 -99%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 28 $400 +$341 +85%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $5,672 −$5,672 -100%
Telstar 1963 vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $60 −$60 -100%
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $176 −$176 -100%
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $300 +$288 +96%
Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $1,180 +$1,385 +117%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $1,483 +$1,672 +113%
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $300 −$300 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jan 28 $310 +$5 +2%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Dec 17 $310 +$1 +0%
North Korea missile launch by October 15? Nov 03 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $170 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Oct 15 $1,024 −$4 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 15 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will @PepMangione release another video by Dec 11? Oct 15 $1 $0 +18%
Trump formally nominates Matt Gaetz for AG? Oct 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Trump-Vance Republican ticket on election day? Oct 15 $12 $0 +1%
Walz and Vance debate on Oct 1? Oct 24 $14 $0 +2%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Sep 26 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on July 26? Aug 25 $6 +$3 +47%
Ethereum all time high in June? Jul 20 $8 $0 +3%
Indian Election: Modi reelected? Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $806 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $101 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 8h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $1,015 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $1,015 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $1,015 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $1,051 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 59d
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 61d
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $700 119d
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,000 119d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $600 119d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 119d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 119d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 119d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 119d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 119d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $72 119d
Telstar 1963 vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $60 119d
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $59 119d
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $117 119d
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $100 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,042.57 · official $3,042.57 (match) · 84 history records