Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18ee…36a8 other 114 markets active 7d ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-1%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$3
politics 33% −$2
sports 13% −$55
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -2.2% -11.6% 6% 3% -9.9%
all 114 -5.6% -14.6% 5% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 3% -10.4%
10% -22.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 108
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage105d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $173 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $71 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $65 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 25d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 28d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 28d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 35d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 40d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 40d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 41d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 41d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 41d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 41d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 41d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 42d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $75 42d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 43d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 43d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 43d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 43d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 43d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 44d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records