Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18ec…16f2 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 6% $0
other 6% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage453d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $1 $0 -10%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $8 +$1 +8%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 03 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 03 $4 $0 -10%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Jun 01 $6 $0 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $44 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $43 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $52 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $53 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $21 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $19 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $45 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $45 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $53 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $51 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $52 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.56 · official $7.56 (match) · 117 history records