Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18e9…1f9e other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 99L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,604per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$5
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$211
politics 38% −$93
sports 4% −$135
economics 3% −$6
culture 2% −$6
tech 1% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 45 -6.9% -15.7% 7% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 108 -3.6% -12.8% 8% 6% -9.5%
all 108 -3.6% -12.8% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 6% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,684) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$6 · ×10.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,582
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1,604
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,171 $1,170 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $411 $412 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,146 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,090 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $5,435 −$6 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,763 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,366 −$5 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,886 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,763 −$7 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,719 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,660 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,568 −$3 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $69 +$47 +67%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,679 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,092 −$4 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $49 +$63 +129%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $670 +$1 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $5,089 −$6 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,974 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,410 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 21 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,758 −$6 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 19 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $4,192 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $4,351 −$5 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,522 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,171 51m
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,045 3h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,240 3h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 7h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 30h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 31h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $936 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $937 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,217 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,468 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,470 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $411 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,219 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,220 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,197 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,199 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,562 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,564 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,227 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,294 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,296 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,169 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,637 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,640 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,656 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,659 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,582.23 · official $1,582.23 (match) · 323 history records