Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18e9…e48c world 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$4
other 20% $0
economics 6% $0
politics 5% −$4
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.9%
all 34 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage401d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $32 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $72 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $23 −$4 -19%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will USDC grow more than USDT in May? May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will DOGE sell FBI headquarters before June? May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $6 3m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $24 3m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $16 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records