Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18e7…7b28 crypto 1125 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$201 (+1%) realized +$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate88%989W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$44
14 days+$46
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 148 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 4% -8.5%
≤90d 1125 -2.6% -11.9% 88% 13% -9.7%
all 1125 -2.6% -11.9% 88% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 13% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses989 / 136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1125 / 1125
History coverage73d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1125 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $83 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $83 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $83 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $82 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $81 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $76 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $72 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $71 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $72 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $69 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $69 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $66 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $65 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $64 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $63 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $63 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $58 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3134 history records