Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18e5…be5e sports 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-1%) realized −$102 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%74W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$219
14 days−$729
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$126
other 5% −$258
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.6% -19.1% 45% 36% -43.2%
≤30d 19 -27.4% -34.3% 37% 32% -15.1%
≤90d 23 -26.6% -33.6% 39% 35% -15.3%
all 152 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 47% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 47% -11.4%
10% -22.8% 45% -19.9%
15% -30.2% 43% -27.7%
20% -37.1% 38% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$39 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses74 / 78
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage198d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$18 -58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 −$150 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $101 +$95 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$18 +178%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 0 Thailand? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $284 −$280 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $122 −$120 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$65 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $998 +$673 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 Apr 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $15 +$9 +59%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Magic Mar 04 $20 +$49 +245%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Feb 25 $30 +$25 +82%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $20 +$18 +89%
Heat vs. Bucks Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Feb 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Feb 24 $30 +$21 +70%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Feb 24 $30 +$40 +133%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 21 $20 +$16 +82%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $44 +$19 +43%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 13 $50 +$22 +45%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 13 $20 +$33 +163%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 06 $20 +$28 +142%
Nets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Feb 06 $80 +$82 +103%
Wizards vs. Pistons Feb 06 $130 +$131 +101%
Pelicans vs. Bucks Feb 06 $20 +$31 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $13 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 66¢ $28 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 6d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $61 7d
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 0 Thailand? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $20 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $51 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $31 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $203 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 32¢ $71 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $51 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $51 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $998 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 56¢ $152 27d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 56¢ $10 52d
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 62d
Magic vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 100¢ $24 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.07 · official $19.07 (match) · 315 history records