Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18e5…0743 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.3% -34.3% 22% 22% -42.9%
≤30d 9 -27.3% -34.3% 22% 22% -42.9%
≤90d 9 -27.3% -34.3% 22% 22% -42.9%
all 9 -27.3% -34.3% 22% 22% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.3% 22% -42.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.6% 22% -48.4%
15% -46.3% 22% -53.4%
20% -51.6% 22% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records