Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18e4…e2bb
sports · 170 markets active 2h ago
7.5score
+$27,041 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,760 · open −$489
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge
✓ In copytrade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,072
Realized+$27,760
Unrealized−$489
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses104 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$860
Open positions5
Markets (closed)165 / 170
History coverage249d
Avg bet$817
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 5 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$681
7 days+$52
14 days−$1,670
30 days+$1,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $2,023 $1,614 −$409 (-20%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,100 $1,025 −$75 (-7%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 48¢ 44¢ $979 $898 −$81 (-8%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $380 $500 +$120 (+32%)
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 52¢ 24¢ $80 $36 −$44 (-55%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 33¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Spirit 53¢ 0¢ $530 $0 −$530 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 34¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $699 $0 −$699 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 48¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 47¢ 0¢ $470 $0 −$470 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 32¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $530 −$530 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $280 +$220 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $294 +$206 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $500 +$500 +100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $420 +$580 +138%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $165 −$165 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,100 +$900 +82%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $470 −$470 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $340 −$340 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $290 +$710 +245%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $133 −$133 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $320 −$320 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $740 −$740 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,825 −$2,076 -74%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,128 −$2,128 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $265 +$235 +89%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $556 +$1,444 +259%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $577 +$423 +73%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2,586 +$3,315 +128%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,873 +$1,583 +85%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,340 +$658 +49%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $380 +$620 +163%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $510 +$490 +96%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $380 +$85 +22%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $450 +$550 +122%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $275 −$275 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $557 −$557 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $550 +$450 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $258 +$342 +133%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 03 $742 −$699 -94%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $200 +$200 +100%
Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $346 −$346 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 02 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $387 −$387 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 02 $973 −$973 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 02 $952 −$952 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 02 $2,140 −$2,140 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $166 +$180 +108%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $240 +$760 +317%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $859 +$1,189 +138%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,830 +$1,170 +64%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $620 +$380 +61%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $390 +$610 +156%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 13 $280 +$220 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $460 −$460 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $1,125 +$1,918 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$5,490
sports 41% +$22,345
finance 4% −$180
culture 2% +$207
crypto 2% −$1,108
politics 1% +$517
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $383 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $81 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $86 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $46 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $81 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $74 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $149 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 56¢ $25 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 56¢ $93 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 56¢ $28 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 56¢ $121 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 58¢ $294 11h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $420 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $500 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $86 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $12 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $57 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $226 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $14 16h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $391 36h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $159 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 45% -9.2%
≤30d 45 +12.6% +1.9% 51% 51% -4.9%
≤90d 95 +23.6% +11.8% 61% 59% +13.8%
all 165 +23.4% +11.6% 63% 59% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 59% +9.3%
10% +0.9% 53% -1.2%
15% -8.8% 48% -10.7%
20% -17.8% 43% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,072.26 · official $4,072.26 (match) · 1457 history records