Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18e2…4958
world · 42 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$12 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage525d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $78 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $73 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $36 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $59 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $69 +$2 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $112 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $4 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $39 −$2 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $11 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $48 −$4 -9%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $492 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $258 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 14 $258 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27? Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha be the top Champions League scorer? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? May 06 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$10
world 34% +$3
finance 7% −$7
sports 3% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $12 35h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $26 35h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $14 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $23 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $41 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $41 42h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $25 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $36 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $31 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 34 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -3.3% -12.5% 35% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.9% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.10 · official $10.08 (match) · 160 history records