Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18df…1f13 sports 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized +$24 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%53W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$116
14 days+$162
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$13
crypto 2% −$7
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +15.2% +4.3% 45% 45% +25.4%
≤30d 114 -13.6% -21.9% 39% 39% -8.5%
≤90d 126 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -4.8%
all 126 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 42% -4.8%
10% -25.9% 42% -13.9%
15% -33.0% 37% -22.2%
20% -39.6% 32% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses53 / 73
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)126 / 131
History coverage38d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 18¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 15¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $81 +$62 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $9 +$8 +86%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $6 +$19 +306%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3 +$8 +262%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$12 +122%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 −$2 -59%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $28 −$27 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +28%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 +$3 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $9 +$10 +108%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 −$2 -40%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$7 +712%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +57%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 +$2 +91%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +307%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 +$21 +64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $143 6m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 7m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $81 27m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $9 31m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $3 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 18¢ $28 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $9 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $3 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 17h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 21h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $1 21h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 26h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $23 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 25¢ $1 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 32h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $10 35h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 37h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $20 40h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 41h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 43h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $28 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $9 44h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 43¢ $1 44h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 90¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 227 history records