Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x18de…7c92 sports 251 markets active 2d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,482 (-4%) realized −$11,482 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%164W / 87L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,021per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1,538est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$970
7 days−$4,532
14 days−$5,366
30 days−$13,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12,118
crypto 2% −$151
other 2% −$142
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -30.1% -36.8% 58% 25% -26.0%
≤30d 130 -3.5% -12.7% 63% 40% -17.2%
≤90d 251 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 45% -14.0%
all 251 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 45% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 45% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 27% -22.2%
15% -31.1% 18% -29.7%
20% -37.8% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,797) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$654 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,482
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses164 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,538
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage49d
Avg bet$1,021
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1,031 −$1,028 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1,001 +$29 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1,330 +$29 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $317 −$314 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $247 +$82 +33%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $182 +$62 +34%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $226 −$37 -16%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $677 −$675 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Jun 13 $661 +$13 +2%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $587 +$76 +13%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $61 +$32 +53%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $324 −$320 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2,010 −$2,000 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2,067 +$268 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $2,007 +$61 +3%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $2,433 +$71 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $2,303 +$93 +4%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $405 −$400 -99%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $2,537 +$211 +8%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $2,306 +$219 +10%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1,125 −$1,120 -100%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Lukas Pokorny Jun 10 $1,081 +$142 +13%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 09 $4,005 −$124 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $3,504 +$502 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $3,365 +$137 +4%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $3,273 +$95 +3%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 09 $3,056 +$190 +6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $2,993 +$87 +3%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $1,002 −$988 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $1,153 +$109 +10%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton Jun 08 $1,101 +$43 +4%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $736 −$728 -99%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $686 +$51 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $395 +$290 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $42 +$45 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -12%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $480 −$77 -16%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $450 +$14 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $1,331 −$1,107 -83%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $183 −$180 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Alexander Maarten Jong vs Shintaro Mochizu Jun 06 $1,169 −$1,164 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Stefanos Sakellaridi Jun 06 $1,001 +$169 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 90¢ $1,031 40h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $1,030 42h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 97¢ $1,001 43h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 96¢ $1,001 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 73¢ $317 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 86¢ $317 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 89¢ $329 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar SELL Anna Blinkova 99¢ $329 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 74¢ $247 2d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel SELL Alexander Shevchenko 75¢ $244 2d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 55¢ $182 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $184 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $221 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 92¢ $95 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 93¢ $501 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 77¢ $81 3d
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam SELL Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 99¢ $674 3d
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam BUY Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 97¢ $661 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Jesper de Jong 99¢ $663 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 89¢ $85 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 87¢ $502 3d
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 26¢ $5 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Martin Landaluce 99¢ $93 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 64¢ $61 3d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 56¢ $324 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 84¢ $2,010 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth SELL Jiri Lehecka 82¢ $2,336 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY Jiri Lehecka 73¢ $50 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY Jiri Lehecka 72¢ $2,017 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records