Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
18 0x18d9…e385 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%11W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$14
politics 11% −$6
other 6% +$7
sports 2% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 50 -10.8% -19.3% 16% 10% -9.1%
all 64 -8.6% -17.3% 17% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 8% -9.6%
10% -25.2% 8% -18.2%
15% -32.5% 8% -26.1%
20% -39.1% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses11 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage629d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $83 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $36 +$14 +40%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Mar 30 $22 +$31 +144%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 26 $31 +$25 +82%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $18 +$22 +122%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $52 42h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.85 · official $65.85 (match) · 294 history records