Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d8…6b26 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-5%) realized −$5 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$214
sports 15% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% -12.1%
≤30d 4 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% -12.1%
≤90d 4 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% -12.1%
all 4 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 25% -12.1%
10% -28.6% 25% -20.5%
15% -35.5% 25% -28.2%
20% -41.8% 25% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$44 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $94 $24 −$69 (-74%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +249%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $178 50m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 51m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 53m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $51 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $44 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 23h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 23h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 23h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.76 · official $61.76 (match) · 18 history records