Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d5…1728 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 24% $0
politics 14% +$2
sports 9% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +0.9% -8.7% 23% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage303d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 13 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 11 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 20 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $37 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $37 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $21 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $16 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $37 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records