Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d4…307c other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$224 (+2%) realized +$191 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$63
14 days−$30
30 days+$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 40% -14.6%
≤30d 52 +6.1% -4.0% 46% 42% -5.1%
≤90d 63 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 37% -11.7%
all 63 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 37% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 37% -11.7%
10% -16.1% 27% -20.1%
15% -24.2% 17% -27.8%
20% -31.6% 13% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$81 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage40d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $50 $112 +$62 (+124%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+71%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 7¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-55%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $83 −$66 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $80 −$71 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$31 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $104 −$25 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $256 +$66 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $94 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $155 +$115 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $208 −$88 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $86 +$15 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $62 +$19 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $260 −$131 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $311 +$73 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $136 +$26 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $103 −$14 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $52 +$17 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $103 +$25 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $240 −$113 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $203 +$44 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $104 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $99 +$137 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$9 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $99 −$51 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $153 −$9 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $566 +$220 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $199 −$55 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $52 +$9 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $302 +$114 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $52 −$25 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $250 +$131 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $206 −$52 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $153 −$27 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $103 −$78 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $202 +$145 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $465 −$87 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $155 −$78 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $458 −$69 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $198 +$56 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $252 +$406 +161%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $399 +$169 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $45 +$203 +453%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $329 −$136 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $102 −$46 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $131 −$98 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $153 +$104 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $81 54m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.13 · official $223.13 (match) · 400 history records