Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

18 0x18d4…69a9 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$385 (-16%) realized +$21 · open −$406

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$596per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$1,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-2.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+7.7%	-2.6%	33%	33%	-7.4%
≤30d	3	+7.7%	-2.6%	33%	33%	-7.4%
≤90d	3	+7.7%	-2.6%	33%	33%	-7.4%
all	3	+7.7%	-2.6%	33%	33%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.6%	33%	-7.4%
10%	-11.9%	33%	-16.2%
15%	-20.4%	0%	-24.3%
20%	-28.2%	0%	-31.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$15 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,087

Realized+$21

Unrealized−$406

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$596

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	36¢	26¢	$1,492	$1,087	−$406 (-27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$153	+$51	+34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$504	−$16	-3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$204	−$15	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	27¢	$204	1m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	SELL Yes	43¢	$205	6m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	34¢	$298	43m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$407	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	70¢	$489	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$305	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$504	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$51	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$305	1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	29¢	$189	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$102	1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$204	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,086.66 · official $1,127.66 · 12 history records